The 15 mg intercept implies 15 mg/day even at zero morphine exposure. The paper argues that linear growth will eventually produce overly large doses.
| OME mg/day | Morphine:methadone |
|---|---|
| <100 | 3:1 |
| 101–300 | 5:1 |
| 301–600 | 10:1 |
| 601–800 | 12:1 |
| 801–1000 | 15:1 |
| >1000 | 20:1 |
The article's printed table leaves the exact value 100 mg unstated. This app assigns 100 mg to the 3:1 band, consistent with the authors' example that 300 mg gives 60 mg and 301 mg gives 30.1 mg.
Designed empirically to rise rapidly at low OME and more gradually at high OME, while retaining a 15 mg/day intercept.
The BJR and 20:1 Ayonrinde curves intersect mathematically at about 1458 mg OME/day. The paper nevertheless describes 1500 mg/day as the practical switching threshold.
| Issue | Implication |
|---|---|
| Rapid communication, not a clinical validation study | The proposed BJR constant (2.3) was selected empirically from curve behaviour rather than derived from prospective patient outcomes. |
| No clinical outcome dataset | No estimates of analgesic success, toxicity, respiratory depression, withdrawal, or mortality are provided. |
| Starting-dose intercept | Plonk and BJR return 15 mg/day when morphine is zero. This is a mathematical feature, not evidence that opioid-naïve patients should receive that dose. |
| Ayonrinde discontinuities | A 1 mg increase across a boundary can sharply reduce the calculated methadone dose; e.g. 300 mg OME → 60 mg, whereas 301 mg → 30.1 mg. |
| Extreme-dose uncertainty | At 7000 mg OME/day: Plonk 481 mg, Ayonrinde 350 mg, BJR 142 mg, and modified BJR 350 mg—showing major model divergence. |
| Patient factors omitted | The equations do not incorporate age, frailty, organ function, QTc, interacting drugs, prior opioid duration, pain mechanism, or inter-individual methadone half-life. |